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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still